today (August 5, 2009), BusinessWeek headlines its most commented article with the question
When Will Consumers Start Spending Again?
who asks that? you, the reader? you, as a consumer? you, as a business owner? you, as an economist? or you, as a journalist?
who is “the consumers”?
it’s you, and it’s me.
do we spend?
you bet.
so what does it mean whether we “start to spend again”?
what a smart question! this question alone will awake the economy…
no, it will lull your mind.
should we stare at the EFFECTS instead of influencing the CAUSES?
do you really believe that consumer spending drives the economy?
let me ask you again and let it sink in:
do you really believe that consumer spending drives the economy?
we can’t expect consumers to spend more than they earn, can we?
it’s entrepreneurs who have to leverage what actually drives the economy:
investment in business.
investment in jobs, innovation and marketing, so that value is added.
this is a great time to invest. who does not invest right now but blames the crisis does not show business leadership.
yes, the economy is based on consumption. but wait. consumption of labor, energy, and capital.
85% of world energy consumption (similar figure holds for the USA) is based on fossil energy (oil, coal, gas). remember? in the US, oil was half the price two years ago. who is to spend?
as a large nation, the US has the highest energy consumption per capita in the world (behind Canada). this energy is imported.
consumer goods are imported, too.
labor is “imported” because it’s “off-shored” to low-wage countries.
the result is: the USA isn’t a manufacturing country any more. it isn’t leading in exports. it’s leading in destroying its manufacturing base.
according to GE CEO Jeff Immelt, his peer Peter Loescher, CEO of Siemens once said: “in my career, i never heard an American CEO say that the US should be leading in exports.”
that’s a revelation. Loescher seems to say he is missing an insight with his American peers. it’s refreshing to have external views. and i’m sure you’re listening.
if your strategy is off-shoring talent and procrastinating innovation and investments, think again.
the world has changed enormously. whereas in the past European and Asian economies copied from the US, now it’s vice versa. China is leading in nuclear power and in renewable energy. China has become the leading global car consumer and car maker. and China will go electric. millions of electric cars will be produced in China for an end consumer price less than $10,000.
but at this very moment as you are reading this, the new CEO of GM, Fritz Henderson, is dreaming about “great cars and trucks” and is still believing that GM can’t build an affordable electric car that goes 200 miles. we have to expect that LA will soon become the dominant import harbor for Chinese electric cars. great for LA, bad for GM. bad for the US. even if consumers spend for these cars.
let’s admit, the US has fallen back, in its industrial base and in mindset. structural innovations are forehead in Europe and Asia. China manufactures the computers, cellphones, and <fill in the blank> we all use. China even surpassed the US in consumer spending of luxury goods!
a turnaround means turning things around: if you are able to compete with your products in China, where the great demand is, you’re competitive in the US, too.
makes sense?
for global players and for start-ups alike, it’s important to unleash innovations at multiple price points serving different cultural regions.
let’s summarize:
the renewal of the economy is neither driven by the (US) consumer nor by a Wall Street investor staring at consumer behaviors.
(in some sense, the US economy can be driven by the Chinese consumer…)
renewal is driven by increased R&D.
renewal is driven by clean energy production and consumption.
renewal is driven by manufacturing and exports.
successful entrepreneurs usually focus on needs and offer profitable solutions. there are a lot of needs in the society, right now.
take your time. think things through. don’t be controlled by media lingo. don’t listen to retired business icons. study the real leaders and decide for yourself. don’t make any excuse that you can’t act reasonably and long-term.
you can.
.
please don’t leave this blog without asking yourself:
what did i learn from reading this article? do i agree? why? if not, why not?
is there something in my thinking i better should change?
is there something in my behavior i can change?
.
a blog cannot improve your impact as a leader. but this blog will.